MMAhitlist.com is an objective rating and ranking system for professional MMA athletes. MMAhitlist.com applies a standard set of formulas to each competitors resume to produce a statistic we call the Fighter Value. The Fighter Value is measured against the other competitors’ Fighter Values within the same weight class to provide the MMAhitlist.com rankings.
Currently focused on the UFC, MMAhitlist.com is looking to expand to other organizations using the Unified Rules of Mixed Martial Arts.
MMAhitlist.com currently provides MMA fans and media with an unbiased analysis of the UFC’s competitors using universally applied criteria free from the prejudices inherent in subjective poll ranking systems. Users are invited to use these objective ratings to better inform their own subjective opinions and rankings.
It has been often repeated that Mixed Martial Arts is like kinetic chess. As such, the Elo system used to rate chess players has been used as a starting point to create MMAhitlist.com’s rating system. However, the criteria of win / loss has been augmented with additional criteria such as finish victory or loss and the rarity of a finish in the respective weight division, unanimous decision or split decision, or draw, the opponent’s fighter value, how recent the fights being considered occurred, how recent the fight has occurred in that competitor’s resume, whether the fight occurred in the same or a different weight class from the weight class the fighter value is being provided, at what place in the fight card the fight occurred as well as what type of fight card, and whether the fight was for a title. Further details on these criteria are provided below. These criteria are standardized and applied universally to all competitors without prejudice.
It has been often repeated that Mixed Martial Arts is like kinetic chess. As such, the Elo system used to rate chess players has been used as a starting point to create MMAhitlist.com’s rating system. However, Elo's criteria of win / loss has been augmented with additional criteria such as finish victory or loss and the rarity of a finish in the respective weight division, unanimous decision, split decision, or draw, the opponent’s Fighter Value, how recent the fights being considered occurred, how recent the fight has occurred in that competitor’s resume, whether the fight occurred in the same or a different weight class from the weight class the Fighter Value is being provided, at what place in the fight card the fight occurred as well as what type of fight card, and whether the fight was for a title. Further details on these criteria are provided below. These criteria are standardized and applied universally to all competitors without prejudice.
MMAhitlist.com Fighter Value assumes a competitor’s relative value may increase or degenerate over time but is a valuation of the competitor’s recent performance. As such, the Fighter Values are created by applying the fight values of the competitor’s last three fights within the last 18 months. Fights older than 18 months and fights not within the competitors last three are not considered in that competitor’s Fighter Value.
This rewards competitors who are active enough to compete at least twice a year, allows time for inactivity due to injury, and penalizes inactive or punitively suspended competitors. Although three fight values in eighteen months are calculated together to determine a competitor’s Fighter Value, the fight values dissolve with each successive fight. To rephrase, a competitor’s more recent fight has more value than the previous. This takes into account the competitor’s increasing, or decreasing, skills while not allowing a performance that would be considered to be an aberration and inconsistent with a true Fighter Value to be overly weighted.
MMAhitlist.com uses the following criteria.
Result – The fight result is the most important criteria in determining the fight values. As a result, great care is taken to determine this value. Results are broken down between Victory, Loss, and Draw. Following, these results are broken down between Finish (by submission, KO, TKO, DQ, or any other result that determines a victor prior to a judge’s decision), Unanimous Decision, or Split Decision. Further, the results are valued by determining the rarity of that result within the respective weight division in the eighteen months prior to the fight card taking place. For example, in the UFC’s Heavyweight division, the Heavyweight fights in the eighteen months prior to UFC 66 (UFC 54 8/20/05 to UFC 65 11/18/06) included 32 fights with 24 finishes (75% ), 1 Unanimous Decision (3.13%), 3 Split Decisions (9.38%), and no Draws. One year later, the Heavyweight fights in the eighteen months prior to UFC 74 (UFC 58 3/4/06 to UFC 73 7/7/07) included 32 fights with 18 finishes (56.25%), 7 Unanimous Decisions (21.88%), 3 Split Decisions (9.38%), and no Draws. As a result, Randy Couture’s TKO of Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 74 has more value than Andre Arlovski’s KO of Marcio Cruzat UFC 66 due to the relative rarity of that result in the period prior to UFC 74 than the period prior to UFC 66.
As fights going to decision become more commonplace in a division, the value of the finish victories increase. (take out "this is the Tim Sylvia rule")
Opponent Value – The opponent’s Fighter Value is the second most important criteria for determining the fight value. The greater the opponent’s Fighter Value at the time of the fight, the greater the fight value will be. Meanwhile, a loss can be more muted when happening against a quality opponent.
For example, as of 1/1/08, Middleweight fighter Patrick Cote’s two most recent fights were a TKO of Kendall Grove (Fighter Value at the time = 1.41559) on 8/25/07 and a Unanimous Decision victory over Scott Smith (Fighter Value at the time = 0.76553) on 2/3/07. The TKO finish of Kendall Grove produced a fight value of 1.06065 while the Decision victory of Scott Smith produced a fight value of 0.34844. The great contrast in the two fight values is due primarily to the opponents’ Fighter Values. To further illustrate, Jason MacDonald’s Unanimous Decision loss to Yushin Okami (Fighter Value at the time = 1.74046) on 10/20/07 produced a fight value of 0.42641 – a fight value greater than Patrick Cote’s victory over Scott Smith. This is designed to measure fighters against each other as fairly as possible and to reward fighters taking on quality opponents.
Title Value – Title and Interim title fights are 5 round fights rather than the 3 round non-title fights within the Unified Rules of Mixed Martial Arts. Even when a fight does not reach the “championship rounds” it is assumed the competitors have both trained for a 5 round fight and are experiencing additional pressures as a result of the visibility of the contest. Some consideration is given to the fight values when they are for a title.
Date Value – a small portion of the fight’s value is determined by how recent the fight occurred. This is designed to provide more value for fighters more active than most as well as to represent the dissolving value of fights over time when creating Fighter Values. Inactivity from a fighter provides for ever-decreasing Fighter Values.
Weight Class – When a fighter competes in a weight class above the one the Fighter Value is being created in, the fight is given more value for that challenge. As well, when a fighter competes in a weight class below the one the Fighter Value is being created in, the fight is given lesser value for that challenge.
Competitors in the measured organization(s) for the first time are given the average fighter value for all fighters in that weight class for the eighteen months prior to their debut. This includes fighters with greater reputations and overseas resumes as well as those graduating to the measured organization(s) from smaller, regional shows or making their professional debut in MMA.
Card Value – Small consideration is provided for the placement on a fight card as well as the type of show (i.e. broadcast versus unbroadcast, Pay-Per-View versus Free Cable, regional versus national spotlight, etc.). For example, numbered UFC shows have a slightly greater value than Ultimate Fight Night, and Ultimate Fighter Finale shows. This is in consideration of the pressures on the competitors’ to perform when televised or, to a greater extent, when headlining.
MMAHitlist.com was originally launched on the internet shortly after UFC 81 on 2/2/08. MMAhitlist.com Fighter Values have been used in determining fight values since Ultimate Fight Night 10 on 9/8/07. Simplified versions of the formulas were used for Fighter Values between 3/4/06 and 8/25/07. Fights between 10/22/04 and 2/4/06 were used to provide the data for these initial Fighter Values. Some variations in Fighter Values may occur as a result. While UFC competitors are the only ones being rated at this time, we are hopeful to expand our analysis to competitors in other organizations using the Unified Rules of Mixed Martial Arts in the near future.
At this time, Fighter Values are not audited.
MMAhitlist.com is not affiliated with any MMA organization.
MMAhitlist.com uses information in the public domain to determine its values.
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